The single event that could fundamentally alter the global order? The rise of India
The latest thinking on India, in China
Dear Global Jigsaw,
Two thousand and twenty five will be critical for India-China relations. It marks the 75th anniversary of bilateral diplomatic ties and is a year that will unfold amidst a shifting global order, the attendant uncertainties of which appear to be helping a thaw in the ties between the Himalayan neighbors. This relationship has been in a deep freeze since military clashes along the nations’ disputed border in the Galwan Valley resulted in the deaths of soldiers on both sides.
However, since October 2024 diplomatic interactions have increased and there are also signs of a nascent economic re-engagement. India has shown a willingness to ease restrictions on Chinese investments and trade, reversing some post-2020 measures like app bans and investment scrutiny. The 2023-2024 Economic Survey recommended encouraging Chinese foreign direct investment to boost India’s manufacturing and supply chain integration. Direct flights between the two countries are also set to resume.
It is likely that any rapprochement will be a pragmatic re-calibration rather than a fundamental reset. The thaw is being driven by tactical economic needs and geopolitical flux, but is tempered by enduring rivalry and strategic caution.
Given this background, here is the second part of my interview with Sino-Indian scholar Mao Keji who is currently a fellow at the Harvard-Yenching Institute.
His replies to my questions are nuanced and candid, qualities that are rare (in my - possibly dated- experience) when talking to Chinese academics on foreign policy issues.
Today, we will look at what he has to say in response to the following three questions:
What single change in policy on the Indian government’s side do you think can make a significant difference to Sino-Indian bilateral relations? And the same question for the Chinese government side.
You have said, " If there is any single event in the future that could [fundamentally] alter this (global) order, I believe it would be the rise of India." Can you explain this further? Why is India's economic development a geopolitical issue that can recast the international order?
What do you think the impact of Trump will be on the India-China dynamic?
PA: What one single change in policy on the Indian government's side do you think can make a significant difference to Sino-Indian bilateral relations? And the same question for the Chinese government side.
MK: This is indeed a particularly insightful question. I find it extremely meaningful, prompting many profound reflections.
From the Indian government's perspective, one significant policy shift the Modi administration could pursue is easing visa restrictions for Chinese citizens traveling to India. According to recently published data, as of March 17, 2025, the Chinese embassy in India had already issued 50,000 visas to Indian citizens this year.