Most commentators are scarcely aware of the resource constraints of India as compared to China. India is almost entirely dependent on imports for its energy needs as compared to China which was oil sufficient till as recently as 1995. India also blows away a huge amount of its foreign earnings on gold. On the other hand China mines a substantial amount of gold.
China over the last two decades also built huge hydroelectric dams - 3 Gorges being the most well known.
The aspect of the large Chinese diaspora is also not well appreciated by Indians. Chinese labour built not only the trans continental railway in US but have been major labour force in nearly all the global gold rushes - SA, Australia.
All the above are material quantifiable distinctions and airy talk about abstract cultural values etc is gloss and delusional.
Finally - do also point out the educational and academic achievements along with the long standing administrative experience of the Chinese leadership as compared to the ministers in the Indian cabinet.
True India can never be China. In fact given the fabled inclusiveness it’s a matter of time that the North East will soon be migrating across to the malls and the high speed railways built just an hour away on the Tibetan side. This is already visible in Nepal.
please consider several dimensions of the problem:
Authoritarianism comes in various shades, and one of them is the "charismatic" form. Hitler's rule was charismatic at the outset. Modi is running this authoritarian strategy under religious guise.
India inherited the laws of the Raj - they were authoritarian. That's how Indira Gandhi could rule "legally" when it suited her.
FPTP (First Past the Post) is inherently authoritarian, for it disenfranchises minorities (or play the quota game). Not until India goes MMP (of some sort) - see e.g. Northern Ireland or NZ, or Switzerland - will the country be a democracy.
so what? Indians are very inventive and they'll find a way, if there is a political will, to enfranchise all or major minorities. After all, India has found a way to accommodate 32 million divinities. It has accommodated 19 languages since Indipendence. Don't sell yourself short.
How you navigate a boat in a pond is not comparable to navigating in an ocean. Do you have $10 billion lying around for this massive electoral overhaul when we can barely hold elections that less than half of our population attends because of chronically underfunded bureaucracy? Have you lived in India?
My dear Pallavi your posts are always instructive but this one additionally provides lots of food for thought. That democracy has survived in a poor and complex country such as India says a lot for the tolerance and values of the Indian.Such a society moves ahead by consensus, rather than imposition, and while this may result in slower progress, it also avoids the hidden tensions that no doubt are building up in China..... Hopefully India will continue to move ahead in a peaceful and democratic way.
There is a conceit in modern journalism that has expanded in its use over the last few generations. I refer to taking surveys, asking readers opinions, and often (usually) reporting the survey results, pretending they are significant.
This practice has always bothered me. Asking someone for his or her opinion about a complex matter about which they know virtually nothing—only what they read in the press, in the case of current affairs—and then pretending that the opinion is somehow significant, and then broadcasting the opinion in one form or another to the general population, seems to be misleading, at best, and manipulative, at worst.
I read your blog and other materials with the expectation that I will learn something new, such as the many things I learned from reading your book on your experiences in China. I am invariably grateful to anyone who teaches me something I did not previously know.
I will decline your invitation to give my views on China vs. India because I have never been to either country, and it would be the height of folly to presume to be qualified to offer opinions on the matter.
If you feel you have no knowledge please feel free to say nothing. Many of my readers are familiar with the topic and it’s interesting to hear a variety of their opinions. But no need to offer one if you have no basis to have one.
I will only add that the “China model” does not seem to work elsewhere. Cuba…..Nicaragua….there are examples of countries where centralized, authoritarian leadership does not bring results. There has to be a cultural basis underpinning political or economic success, or lack thereof.
"China provides a ready made model, one that Beijing itself lacked when embarking on its own experiments with reform and opening up"
I believe Japan was the model
"Over the next few years India will beat China in every race to the bottom, from over population to air pollution, which will help make the case for those impatient with democratic niceties"
It did not happen because they couldn't get a political mandate to exercise deregulation of the agriculture sector, India's biggest employment generator, because apparently farmers are important and deserve to be in unproductive jobs while the protectionist outlook of our government (wanting to copy South Korea) meant we kept chasing away foreign competition, we taxed imports heavily (so our exports are taxed at a high rate), carried out tax terrorism, failed to live up to our promises, ran away from trade treaties (because we were upset our rivals were signing up for Asia's biggest free trade zone) and we don't allow foreign institutions to own much of their local manufacturing base
"Political legitimacy in India is derived from process, while performance is more important for the CCP"
Political legitimacy in both countries is derived by creating a narrative that makes the majority happy. The CCP did that by brainwashing its people, changing the textbooks, erasing history and blocking out the rest of the world. It is the people in the private sector and local governments who are busy chasing targets in both countries
"It was the poor, not the middle-classes, who really needed democracy, a fact that remains true today and in the foreseeable future"
This is not true. They don't care for democracy as much as pride and optimism about the future which BJP provides aplenty
"India’s crowning political achievement has been the development of institutional mechanisms for negotiating large-scale diversity and accommodating frequent, aggressive disagreements. Arguably, this political achievement is as much deserving of awe as China’s economic miracle. It might be less shiny and more chaotic, but it is, in its own way, quite spectacular"
I agree but people only care about GDP in this world and so we're going to have to change track
"Modern India emerged out of a freedom movement and freedom is valued, especially by the poor"
Most of our poor do not have economic freedom. Neither does the middle class so we've fled the country
" India’s urban, Hindu, upper castes do not speak for India, because India never has and likely, never will, speak with one voice"
They will because they have the momentum and they also have the financial backing
"The coming collapse of India has not been up for serious discussion in decades"
India will become Hindustan and then become India again
"Ultimately, despite its seductive visions of discipline and infrastructure, the China model will only have limited cache in India because it does not present robust solutions for managing dissent and diversity"
I hate the China model but it forces our leaders to be competitive as macroeconomic strategists as it makes them look bad but Westerners are very annoying and in the way
"Beijing’s propensity to ignore or criminalize dissenting opinions leaves China with a question mark over its political future, one that India for all its surface anarchy no longer has"
They're all sheep here in Greater China. They will be fine.
What you're missing:
-US and European institutions funded China's economic miracle because they can take their money out easily via Hong Kong but they can't out of India
-China did not play by the rules, stole foreign technology and intellectual property
-China is lying to the world about Tibet, Xinjiang, the Paracel Islands, South China sea and the India-China border skirmish but the world doesn't care because these are all weak nations and Southeast Asia will chagrin and bear it as they need access to the China market with diaspora Chinese likely paving the way
-China and the West overconsumed as they grew and we are going to face the worst of it in the coming decades
Source: National University of Singapore Economics and Political Science graduate from India and a journalism graduate from a Hong Kong university who's lived outside India for 20 years and who used to write for, about India but who Western media organizations would always retrench so there's no hope. Getting Congress back into power after BJP finishes its civilizational mission is going to be key but it will require Rahul Gandhi to step aside
Most commentators are scarcely aware of the resource constraints of India as compared to China. India is almost entirely dependent on imports for its energy needs as compared to China which was oil sufficient till as recently as 1995. India also blows away a huge amount of its foreign earnings on gold. On the other hand China mines a substantial amount of gold.
China over the last two decades also built huge hydroelectric dams - 3 Gorges being the most well known.
The aspect of the large Chinese diaspora is also not well appreciated by Indians. Chinese labour built not only the trans continental railway in US but have been major labour force in nearly all the global gold rushes - SA, Australia.
All the above are material quantifiable distinctions and airy talk about abstract cultural values etc is gloss and delusional.
Finally - do also point out the educational and academic achievements along with the long standing administrative experience of the Chinese leadership as compared to the ministers in the Indian cabinet.
True India can never be China. In fact given the fabled inclusiveness it’s a matter of time that the North East will soon be migrating across to the malls and the high speed railways built just an hour away on the Tibetan side. This is already visible in Nepal.
Great answer
Dear Pallavi,
please consider several dimensions of the problem:
Authoritarianism comes in various shades, and one of them is the "charismatic" form. Hitler's rule was charismatic at the outset. Modi is running this authoritarian strategy under religious guise.
India inherited the laws of the Raj - they were authoritarian. That's how Indira Gandhi could rule "legally" when it suited her.
FPTP (First Past the Post) is inherently authoritarian, for it disenfranchises minorities (or play the quota game). Not until India goes MMP (of some sort) - see e.g. Northern Ireland or NZ, or Switzerland - will the country be a democracy.
At the moment it is becoming an anocracy fast.
India is 274 New Zealands
so what? Indians are very inventive and they'll find a way, if there is a political will, to enfranchise all or major minorities. After all, India has found a way to accommodate 32 million divinities. It has accommodated 19 languages since Indipendence. Don't sell yourself short.
How you navigate a boat in a pond is not comparable to navigating in an ocean. Do you have $10 billion lying around for this massive electoral overhaul when we can barely hold elections that less than half of our population attends because of chronically underfunded bureaucracy? Have you lived in India?
My dear Pallavi your posts are always instructive but this one additionally provides lots of food for thought. That democracy has survived in a poor and complex country such as India says a lot for the tolerance and values of the Indian.Such a society moves ahead by consensus, rather than imposition, and while this may result in slower progress, it also avoids the hidden tensions that no doubt are building up in China..... Hopefully India will continue to move ahead in a peaceful and democratic way.
I hope so too, Ultano! Thank you for your comment.
There is a conceit in modern journalism that has expanded in its use over the last few generations. I refer to taking surveys, asking readers opinions, and often (usually) reporting the survey results, pretending they are significant.
This practice has always bothered me. Asking someone for his or her opinion about a complex matter about which they know virtually nothing—only what they read in the press, in the case of current affairs—and then pretending that the opinion is somehow significant, and then broadcasting the opinion in one form or another to the general population, seems to be misleading, at best, and manipulative, at worst.
I read your blog and other materials with the expectation that I will learn something new, such as the many things I learned from reading your book on your experiences in China. I am invariably grateful to anyone who teaches me something I did not previously know.
I will decline your invitation to give my views on China vs. India because I have never been to either country, and it would be the height of folly to presume to be qualified to offer opinions on the matter.
If you feel you have no knowledge please feel free to say nothing. Many of my readers are familiar with the topic and it’s interesting to hear a variety of their opinions. But no need to offer one if you have no basis to have one.
I will only add that the “China model” does not seem to work elsewhere. Cuba…..Nicaragua….there are examples of countries where centralized, authoritarian leadership does not bring results. There has to be a cultural basis underpinning political or economic success, or lack thereof.
I have only pointed out stones on the way to democracy. It is an analysis, not a prescription.
What you are saying is that the way of least resistance for India is to become authoritarian - in its own way. TINA - There is no alternative, right?
"China provides a ready made model, one that Beijing itself lacked when embarking on its own experiments with reform and opening up"
I believe Japan was the model
"Over the next few years India will beat China in every race to the bottom, from over population to air pollution, which will help make the case for those impatient with democratic niceties"
It did not happen because they couldn't get a political mandate to exercise deregulation of the agriculture sector, India's biggest employment generator, because apparently farmers are important and deserve to be in unproductive jobs while the protectionist outlook of our government (wanting to copy South Korea) meant we kept chasing away foreign competition, we taxed imports heavily (so our exports are taxed at a high rate), carried out tax terrorism, failed to live up to our promises, ran away from trade treaties (because we were upset our rivals were signing up for Asia's biggest free trade zone) and we don't allow foreign institutions to own much of their local manufacturing base
"Political legitimacy in India is derived from process, while performance is more important for the CCP"
Political legitimacy in both countries is derived by creating a narrative that makes the majority happy. The CCP did that by brainwashing its people, changing the textbooks, erasing history and blocking out the rest of the world. It is the people in the private sector and local governments who are busy chasing targets in both countries
"It was the poor, not the middle-classes, who really needed democracy, a fact that remains true today and in the foreseeable future"
This is not true. They don't care for democracy as much as pride and optimism about the future which BJP provides aplenty
"India’s crowning political achievement has been the development of institutional mechanisms for negotiating large-scale diversity and accommodating frequent, aggressive disagreements. Arguably, this political achievement is as much deserving of awe as China’s economic miracle. It might be less shiny and more chaotic, but it is, in its own way, quite spectacular"
I agree but people only care about GDP in this world and so we're going to have to change track
"Modern India emerged out of a freedom movement and freedom is valued, especially by the poor"
Most of our poor do not have economic freedom. Neither does the middle class so we've fled the country
" India’s urban, Hindu, upper castes do not speak for India, because India never has and likely, never will, speak with one voice"
They will because they have the momentum and they also have the financial backing
"The coming collapse of India has not been up for serious discussion in decades"
India will become Hindustan and then become India again
"Ultimately, despite its seductive visions of discipline and infrastructure, the China model will only have limited cache in India because it does not present robust solutions for managing dissent and diversity"
I hate the China model but it forces our leaders to be competitive as macroeconomic strategists as it makes them look bad but Westerners are very annoying and in the way
"Beijing’s propensity to ignore or criminalize dissenting opinions leaves China with a question mark over its political future, one that India for all its surface anarchy no longer has"
They're all sheep here in Greater China. They will be fine.
What you're missing:
-US and European institutions funded China's economic miracle because they can take their money out easily via Hong Kong but they can't out of India
-China did not play by the rules, stole foreign technology and intellectual property
-China is lying to the world about Tibet, Xinjiang, the Paracel Islands, South China sea and the India-China border skirmish but the world doesn't care because these are all weak nations and Southeast Asia will chagrin and bear it as they need access to the China market with diaspora Chinese likely paving the way
-China and the West overconsumed as they grew and we are going to face the worst of it in the coming decades
Source: National University of Singapore Economics and Political Science graduate from India and a journalism graduate from a Hong Kong university who's lived outside India for 20 years and who used to write for, about India but who Western media organizations would always retrench so there's no hope. Getting Congress back into power after BJP finishes its civilizational mission is going to be key but it will require Rahul Gandhi to step aside